Can We See it in the Numbers Yet? Artificial Intelligence, Firm-Level Productivity and SMEs
Ross Brown, Haoran Sun, Marc Cowling, David Dowell
Journal of Technology Transfer, under review
Abstract
Given the ubiquitous nature of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and associated advanced new technologies we would expect to see this featuring in productivity levels of firms adopting these new technologies. Yet surprisingly, evidence on the “AI-productivity nexus” remains sparse and results mixed, especially for this dynamic interplay in smaller firms. This paper wishes to address this omission by empirically examining the impact of AI on productivity small entrepreneurial firms. Utilising a comprehensive longitudinal dataset, this paper explores the firm-level labour productivity effects of AI in a large cohort of UK small firms. Our findings are fairly unequivocal: AI has a significant and sizeable positive impact on productivity levels compared to non-adopters. The paper’s baseline results reveal a positive and statistically significant relationship between AIT adoption and future labour productivity, with AIT adoption associated with approximately 23.8% higher future labour productivity. Other results show that in terms of those benefitting from AI it is firms with the firms with lower unobserved productivity potential are more likely to adopt AI technologies and the benefits from AI adoption seems sector specific with service sector firms particularly prominent among the beneficiaries of AI. Overall, our results point towards the need for a carefully targeted policy approach towards encouraging AI adoption in small firms.